Let me start by clarifying something.  I am not saying that the market could crash spectacularly in the next few days and that in that event the Facebook IPO would be a major contributing factor.  I am not saying that.  The market is saying it.


Facebook boosts IPO size by 25 percent, could top $16 billion

NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -
Facebook Inc increased the size of its initial…

High Risk of Near Term Global Financial Market Crash

At each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data.  I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open "beginner's mind".  I see what I see.  I analyze.  I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report.  I simply report my…

http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blogs/long-term-global-head-and-shoulders-top-likely-in-place

A bit of economic news sparked a minor rally on Tuesday.  The Dow touched a new 4 year intraday high and the financial news media celebrated the moment with banner headlines:…

As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon. While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or…

Source Link:

http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blogs/will-the-euro-collapse

Will the Euro Collapse?

Trading a true currency collapse is a rare opportunity. Most

market participants are familiar with the story of George Soros

and his ride to prominence on the back of the collapse of the

British Pound. Is it possible that a similar opportunity may

present itself soon in the form…

My pick for the month of October is TLH on NYSE, or XLB on TSX.

Disclaimer: The information above is exactly that - information that my statistical model suggest that there is little bit less of 70% probablity (see historical data on previous posts) that this trade will be profitable.  I'm not suggesting in any way that you should do what I'm doing.  If you do it, this is your sole responsibility!  All losses that can (and will!) occur using this model is your sole…

There are following rules that I follow:

1.  At time of decision compare criteria for chosen stocks and choose one best

2.  Criteria is: longer moving average results, shorter moving average and volatility

3.  If the chosen stock is the best, but is below 50 day moving average, all goes to cash (or SHY if you prefer).

4.  If a chosen stock during the month closes below 50 day moving average for two consecutive days, convert all to cash (or SHY if you…

When to trade?

Last day of a month is ideal for this trading systems (and for some others too!) at around half an hour before the close.  Why?  First trading day in a month is statistically the best day for trading (if you pick the right stock)!  On the first in any month fund managers are reviewing their positions and entering new positions - more often than not for window dressing.  Say that you want to trade only one day per month - first of a month - buy at open and sell at…

I want to spend as little time as possible on picking what to trade.  This automatically eliminates stocks of any individual companies.  Picking stocks is hard work.  It requires research, and frankly is very close to gambling, regardless who's doing research.  Accounting scandals, CEOs getting fired, litigations, you name it...  Don't have time, not a gambler, so, those are out of question.  This leads me to picking only in the universe of ETFs.

Next, I want to be able to…

Little bit tacky title, eh?  Well, here I will try to explain my trading strategy in last two and a half years. 

The strategy produced 67% compounded gain yearly, and today's worth is around four times initial capital.  The strategy required extensive backtesting and lots of work upfront, but once introduced, it requires less then one hour per month worth of work!

It is completely statistical model, and involves trend following with some safety features...  In…

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